The S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City Index rose at a 13.8% annual rate in
November. This proves that the US housing market continues to recover,
right? The headlines in most news stories and economic commentaries
indicate that the housing market is continuing to improve and with it
the US economy. But if you dig into the numbers a bit, the reality in
the housing market is a good bit more subtle than the headlines
suggest.
Indeed, it can be
argued that the US housing sector has not really recovered significantly
and remains a major drag on US economic growth. Back in November 2012, I
predicted that housing would be a drag on the US economy and could even
drag us back into recession. The reason? The failure by Congress and
federal regulators to restructure under water borrowers would eventually
become a dead weight, limiting growth and job creation, as well as home
price appreciation, as it did from the 1920s through until the early
1970s.
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