Report: Seriously delinquent mortgages persist across South Florida By Paul Owers

South Florida's seriously delinquent mortgage rate has declined over the past four years but still remains the highest of the nation's 100 largest metro areas, a new report shows. As of the third quarter of 2013, 15.8 percent of all first mortgages in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties were at least 90 days past due or already in the foreclosure process, according to the Urban Institute, a nonprofit research group based in Washington, D.C. The three-county region has posted the highest seriously delinquent mortgage rate since the third quarter of 2009, when it was 23.7 percent. The group began tracking mortgages on a quarterly basis in early 2009. RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, Calif.-based company, releases monthly figures on homes in some stage of foreclosure. The Urban Institute data go beyond that to include loans that are nearing the foreclosure process. While the housing market is improving, "it's far too early to say the crisis has passed," said Rob Pitingolo, author of the report.

Why the Housing “Recovery” is a Farce – Illustrated by Two Charts By: Louis Cammarosano

The economic recovery has been touted in terms of stock and real estate market gains while employment and wage growth have been non existent. During the housing “recovery” the home ownership rate has fallen to an eighteen year low.
We have blamed this unsustainable high price/low sales housing “recovery” dynamic on the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs (QE) whereby the Fed buys trillions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securies (MBS’s) from the Too Big Too Fail (TBTF) banks with money they print out of thin air with the ostensible purpose of stimulating the economy by keeping interest rates low. In reality, QE has been an enormous continuation of the 2008 Troubled Assest Relief Program (TARP) bailout whereby the Fed continues to remove MBS’s from the TBTF banks’ balance sheets by spending trillions of dollars to buy them from the TBTF banks.

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Is the Housing Sector a Drag on the US Economy? by rcwhalen

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City Index rose at a 13.8% annual rate in November.  This proves that the US housing market continues to recover, right?  The headlines in most news stories and economic commentaries indicate that the housing market is continuing to improve and with it the US economy.  But if you dig into the numbers a bit, the reality in the housing market is a good bit more subtle than the headlines suggest.
Indeed, it can be argued that the US housing sector has not really recovered significantly and remains a major drag on US economic growth. Back in November 2012, I predicted that housing would be a drag on the US economy and could even drag us back into recession.  The reason?  The failure by Congress and federal regulators to restructure under water borrowers would eventually become a dead weight, limiting growth and job creation, as well as home price appreciation, as it did from the 1920s through until the early 1970s.

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My opinion of inflation looking at housing prices. The Case Shilling History of Home Values

What is the True rate of Inflation

The inflation rate reported by the US Government has been more or less 3% since 1990. Three factors may effect our "Standard of Living" regardless of the CPI calculations. One is the rising cost of housing shown by the Case Shilling "History of Home Values. The CPI is calculated based on the "House Price - Rent Ratio. The second factor is the "Declining Median Household Income adjusted for Inflation". A Third factor  is the staggering cost of education.



 Housing cost almost doubled between 1995 and July 2006. The chart to the right is from The Case Shilling Report. Housing cost typically make one-third of a family's budget. If the biggest part a family's budget rises eight percent a year the "True Cost of Inflation" must be much higher than the 3% stated value of CPI the government is reporting. It is true that housing values came down fifty percent in many parts of the US, but in 2013 the median housing cost rose again by nearly thirty percent.

The American family's "Standard of Living" has been declining because of improving productivity (overseas jobs and robotics).  The chart below shows both the actual median income and the "True Value" after adjusting for inflation.

For more information
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Median Household Income in the United States inShare5 First off - what is median household income? According to the U.S. Census Bureau, "household median income" is defined as "the amount which divides the income distribution into two equal groups, half having income above that amount, and half having income below that amount." The U.S. Census Bureau currently publishes median household income data from 1967 until present day. Year No. of Households Nominal $ Inflation Adjusted $ 2012 122,459,000 $50,099 $51,017 2011 121,084,000 $49,158 $51,100 2010 119,927,000 $48,415 $51,892 2009 117,538,000 $48,916 $53,285 2008 117,181,000 $49,406 $53,644 2007 116,783,000 $49,341 $55,627 2006 116,011,000 $47,317 $54,892 2005 114,384,000 $45,496 $54,486 2004 113,343,000 $43,544 $53,891 2003 112,000,000 $42,560 $54,079 2002 111,278,000 $41,624 $54,127 2001 109,297,000 $41,458 $54,766 2000 108,209,000 $41,262 $55,987 1999 106,434,000 $39,985 $56,080 1998 103,874,000 $38,127 $54,702 1997 102,528,000 $36,210 $52,784 1996 101,018,000 $34,704 $51,720 1995 99,627,000 $33,238 $50,978 1994 98,990,000 $31,338 $49,429 1993 97,107,000 $30,210 $48,884 1992 96,426,000 $29,473 $49,122 1991 95,669,000 $28,875 $49,529 1990 94,312,000 $28,506 $50,994 1989 93,347,000 $27,391 $51,681 1988 92,830,000 $25,693 $50,776 1987 91,124,000 $24,489 $50,389 1986 89,479,000 $23,339 $49,764 1985 88,458,000 $22,109 $48,063 1984 86,789,000 $20,948 $47,181 1983 85,407,000 $19,494 $45,760 1982 83,918,000 $19,032 $46,082 1981 83,527,000 $17,974 $46,205 1980 82,368,000 $16,542 $46,995 1979 80,776,000 $15,090 $48,520 1978 77,330,000 $13,575 $48,655 1977 76,030,000 $12,132 $46,842 1976 74,142,000 $11,311 $46,548 1975 72,867,000 $10,531 $45,788 1974 71,163,000 $9,921 $47,019 1973 69,859,000 $9,226 $48,557 1972 68,251,000 $8,520 $47,596 1971 66,676,000 $7,896 $45,641 1970 64,778,000 $7,651 $46,089 1969 63,401,000 $7,292 $46,449 1968 62,214,000 $6,673 $44,785 1967 60,813,000 $6,140 $42,934

A popular topic of conversation at the dinner tables in 2013 has been "the Rich are getting Richer and the Poor are getting Poorer". Huge blocks of people in certain demographics are being squeezed possibly on three fronts. Students graduating before 2006 were able to get a fair paying job, get married and then buy a house at double the cost(after adjusting for inflation) of the previous generation. Also the chances are in 2009, when the foreclosures started this same demographic had huge student loans along with a high mortgage.  Many of these same people lost their job in 2009 so they lost everything, including their homes. Why then does not the CPI rate of inflation show this triple threat to our "Standard of Living?


A possible answer is the CPI rate is based on the price of home rentals. The price of renting a home rose at a steady rate until 2006/07 rents started rising faster. When the housing market crashed in 2009 rents only slightly declined. Renters had leases that stabilized their rent price. In 2010 when it was time to renew their leases people moved in two directions. The group of renters that lost their good jobs moved their families in with family or friends. The group of people who kept their job upgrade their home but was able to keep the same rent price range. That means people without income did not rent and people with income paid the same amount of rent. Therefore the calculation of rent prices for the CPI indicator calculates the inflation rate of housing at a low rate of inflation.

The people hurt by this effect were low-rent landlords and people who had both a high mortgage payment and student loans. In 2010 when people moved out of the leases many people were able to move into a much nicer neighborhood with better schools for the same rent price. Thousands of low-rent landlords had houses they could not rent. Landlords had long term vacancies and were not able to sell their properties for any price. Remember nobody was buying houses in 2010, The pace of existing home sales fell twenty-seven percent.

In conclusion three factors destroyed the "Standard of Living" for millions of Americans. Any one of the three factors may have affected the financial prosperity of millions of Americans, but some people experienced all three. Whether paying too much for a house during during the feeding frenzy for a seven year period or loosing a job during the "Financial Melt-down" combined with debt from credit cards or student loans caused millions of Americans to live with lower discretionary income. The time may have come where paying for a college education will not provide the life style benefits as the previous generation did.

Take a look.


Cost of education in 2013 dollars. This is staggering rate of inflation not shown in the CPI inflation

rate.

Read more about college tuition.

from:
 

The Boom And Collapse Of America's 'Subprime Generation' by Chris Porter

Talk about an amazing reversal of fortune! This may be the most amazing, underreported demographic fact today.

• 30-34 year olds in 2012 had the lowest homeownership rate of any similarly aged group before them!
• Five years prior, this exact same group had the highest homeownership rate at 25-29 years old than any group before them!

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/home-ownership-rates-by-demographic-2014-1#ixzz2rKN2PBhb

Vancouver’s housing prices 2nd most unaffordable in the world By Peter Meiszner

An urban planning think tank says Metro Vancouver has the second-highest housing prices in the world when compared to local incomes.
Demographia compared urban areas with over 1,000,000 residents in OECD countries around the world.
They say Vancouver’s “strong urban containment policies” have caused the city’s affordability to “deteriorate markedly.”

The average house price in Metro Vancouver is $670,300, which would require 80 per cent of the average median household income to service the mortgage. That’s more than 2.5 times the 32 per cent guideline set out by Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

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